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| Prince Dapo Abiodun |
ABEOKUTA - The governorship election is slated for this Saturday, 9th March, 2019 throughout the States of the Country (except for few) and the contending political parties are set to clinch the coveted position, having traversed the length and breath of their states campaigning to the electorate.
In Ogun State, the leading and serious players are putting finishing touches to their winning strategies and rounding up their realignments and positioning, particularly having critically analysed the fallouts of the earlier Presidential and National Assembly elections which took place fortnight ago.
Most political pundits can categorically predict that the governorship contest in the gateway state will be a straight battle among Dapo Abiodun of APC; Buruji Kashamu of PDP and, Gboyega Nasiru Isiaka of ADC.
Other players, with likely less and varying degrees of performance/showing, amongst almost 34 arrays of contenders, include Akinlade Adekunle of APM, Rotimi Paseda of SDP and Dimeji Bankole of ADP.
However, unlike about three (3) months ago when the race was too close to call among the three key contenders, current facts, figures, permutations, indications and antecedents have clearly pinpointed Dapo Abiodun of APC as the candidate to beat and, will definitely emerge the winner of the Oke Mosan's Governorship race.
The facts/indications that support the postulation are as follows:
2019 Presidential/National Assembly Performance
Clearly, in the February 23rd Presidential election in the State, APC out performed the other key parties (PDP and ADC) cumulatively scoring 281,762 of the 564,236 valid votes as against 194,655 of PDP and 25,283 of ADC while ADP, AAC and SDP, could manage to poll 7,705, 3,196 and 1,374 votes respectively.
Ditto for the Senatorial election which gave the APC clear win of the three (3) districts of Ogun West, East and Central. The winning figures indicate a wide gap for APC across Districts, particularly at the Central.
The federal constituency's (House of Representatives) election gave the APC seven (7) seats out of 9, leaving barely one for PDP from Ogun East and one for APM in Ogun West. Other listed Parties did not have any good showings either ways.
The pattern is not likely to change in the coming Governorship election as voters in the State have clearly indicated their preference on party platforms particularly in the concluded Presidential election. The bandwagon effect cannot also be ruled out in Saturday elections.
Post Presidential Election Realignments/Bandwagon Effects
With clear insight into the direction of subsequent elections, smart and astute contenders have reviewed their strategies and realigned positions appropriately. The beneficiary of such political 'boat jumping" is APC in the State. Within the grace of almost two weeks, many hitherto gladiators have crossed over to Dapo Abiodun's camp, thus strengthening his winning capacity across districts. Infact, from authoritative sources within the party, many of the foot soldiers of APM's candidate (Adekunle Akinlade), not wanting to remain political orphans, have discretely moved to the potential winning side (APC). The results will be obvious on Saturday.
Governor Amosun's Suspension/Weaning Popularity
With the suspension of Governor Amosun by the NWC of APC last week, his ego and influence over the State Party's structure has been deflated and his popularity rating has diminished to all time low. To compound his political woes, the organized Labour from the National body, in the out going week, completely demystify his ranting. The Governor had to quickly beat a retreat by reabsorbing the sacked State's Labour chairman after 28 months of self posturing. All these put together, will definitely not get his adopted party (APM) anywhere in the Saturday election.
Ogun State PDP's Imbroglio
The ever unending and unresolved crisis within the State's PDP Exco is yet another factor that will give a clear winning edge to APC and his candidate, Dapo Abiodun.
The imbroglio is such that the power blocks within the Party hardly see face to face and this has polarized the party down to the grassroots. The OGD group of PDP has just recently asked its members to vote for Dapo Abiodun on Saturday, a plus to DACO.
Historical Power Relationship between Egbas & Ijebus
One key factor that will play out in favour of APC's candidate (Dapo Abiodun) in Saturday's Governorship election is the historical political power rotation between the Egba/Egbado and Remo/Ijebu Divisions.
Though unwritten, the Egbas and Ijebus have generally respected the understanding that political power must rotate equally between the two post-colonial divisions. With Dapo Abiodun taking on the power-slot of Remo/Ijebu Division in a governing Party, the Egbas are more inclined to reciprocate the age long gesture, voting for Dapo Abiodun of APC.
In conclusion, therefore, (given all the said permutations- and even more), it will be apt to give the winning garlands to Dapo Abiodun of APC in Saturday's Governorship Election, all things being equal.
Amusan is a political analyst from Sagamu
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